If you have ever been told your hip or knee surgery is about a year and a half away, you know the wait is its own kind of pain. Researchers in Manitoba think part of the fix may come from smarter scheduling of the operating rooms the province already has, without waiting years for new surgeons or new hospitals.
The University of Manitoba is testing whether artificial intelligence can shorten surgery wait times, CTV News reports. The project centres on a model called ORION, short for Operating Room Intelligence and Optimization Network, led by orthopedic surgeon Dr. Jay Toor. More than 1,300 Manitobans are in the province's orthopedic surgery backlog, with a median wait of 170 days. Toor told CTV he is very optimistic and that the project would not require building a single new operating room.
Key takeaways
ORION is an AI model being tested in Winnipeg to predict surgical demand and schedule operating rooms more efficiently.
The team projects 5 to 8 percent more orthopedic surgeries and a 10 to 15 percent cut in wait times.
More than 1,300 Manitobans are waiting for orthopedic surgery, with a median wait of 170 days.
It is still a research project, so patients on the list today will not see a change right away.
Asking about short-notice openings and other surgeons' lists can help while you wait.
Why do operating rooms sit empty when lists are so long?
Operating rooms are some of the most expensive spaces in any hospital, and they rarely run at full efficiency. Surgeries finish earlier or later than planned, cases get cancelled at the last minute, and rooms can sit unused while patients wait months, which is time that could have gone to someone on the list.
ORION is funded through a Research Manitoba Solutions Grant and is being studied at Winnipeg's Health Sciences Centre. Its goal is to give hospital teams the information to plan ahead, so operating rooms are booked to match real demand instead of reacting when problems hit.
How would ORION change the schedule?
ORION builds on an earlier AI scheduling system that was pilot-tested at Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto, according to the University of Manitoba. The team is starting by checking the model against history, testing how accurately it would have predicted past surgical demand before trying it on new cases as they come in.
If it works, the university says it could also help administrators plan staffing and reduce burnout among surgical teams. Wait times for specialists are a problem well beyond Manitoba, as our reports on how long Canadians wait to see a specialist and the wait to see a surgeon in Nova Scotia show.
What would a 15 percent cut mean for you?
For now, ORION is a research project and not a switch that has been flipped. If it works as hoped, a 15 percent cut to a 170-day median wait would mean about 25 days sooner for many patients. The team also projects room for 5 to 8 percent more surgeries and savings of $2 million to $4 million a year for the province. Those numbers are the research team's own projections and have not yet been tested on live patients.
Twenty-five days matters if you are the one waiting, but it will not clear a backlog of 1,300 people on its own, because surgery wait times also depend on staff, beds, and funding. Manitoban Guy Arnel told CTV he was told he may have to wait up to 18 months for hip surgery, and many people in his position are watching closely to see whether the technology delivers.
What can you do while you wait?
You still have some control over the wait. A few steps can keep you in the loop and protect your health until your date comes. If your knee or hip pain is changing, our guide to why knees and hips hurt more than they used to explains what helps day to day.
Ask where you stand. Call your surgeon's office, confirm you are on the list, and ask whether they keep a short-notice list for openings when another patient cancels.
Compare other lists. Most provinces publish surgical wait times online, so check whether another surgeon or hospital has a shorter list and ask your family doctor about a referral.
Stay as active as you safely can. Gentle movement and managing pain properly can make recovery easier when your date comes.
Report changes. Tell your doctor if your pain gets worse or your function changes, since that can affect your priority on the list.
Think twice before paying abroad. Talk with your doctor about the risks, the follow-up care you would need at home, and what your provincial plan will and will not cover.
If sudden severe pain, a fall, or new numbness happens while you wait, do not wait it out. Our guide to urgent care versus the emergency room helps you decide where to go.
Frequently asked questions
Will ORION change my surgery date?
ORION will not move your date yet, because it is still being tested against past scheduling data at Winnipeg's Health Sciences Centre, so it is not booking real patients today. If the testing goes well, the team plans to try it on new cases as they come in, and any effect on surgery wait times would come gradually after that.
Can I ask to be put on a cancellation list?
Many surgeons' offices keep a list of patients who can come in on short notice when another patient cancels. Call the office, tell them you are flexible, and make sure they have a phone number where they can reach you quickly. Being ready to go within a day or two can move your date up.
Can my family doctor refer me to a different surgeon?
In most provinces, your family doctor can refer you to another surgeon or hospital with a shorter list, and some provinces have central intake programs that do this automatically. Check your province's published wait times first, then bring the numbers to your doctor so you can decide together whether switching makes sense.
Your next step
If you are stuck on a wait list and need help managing pain in the meantime, a family doctor can review your pain plan and your place in line. The Medimap Health Hub has more on getting care in Canada, and you can book a family doctor near you.
Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and is not medical advice. It does not replace a conversation with a doctor or other qualified health professional who knows your history. If you think you are having a medical emergency, call 911 or go to the nearest emergency department.
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